{"id":363,"date":"2026-11-05T20:01:57","date_gmt":"2026-11-05T12:01:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/?p=363"},"modified":"2026-11-05T20:01:57","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T12:01:57","slug":"%f0%9f%8e%ae-%e8%b3%bd%e5%b1%80%e7%90%86%e8%ab%96%ef%bc%9a%e7%9c%bc%e5%89%8d%e5%88%92%e7%ae%97%ef%bc%8c%e4%b8%8d%e7%ad%89%e6%96%bc%e9%95%b7%e6%9c%9f%e5%88%92%e7%ae%97-yale-econ159-%e7%ad%86%e8%a8%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/%f0%9f%8e%ae-%e8%b3%bd%e5%b1%80%e7%90%86%e8%ab%96%ef%bc%9a%e7%9c%bc%e5%89%8d%e5%88%92%e7%ae%97%ef%bc%8c%e4%b8%8d%e7%ad%89%e6%96%bc%e9%95%b7%e6%9c%9f%e5%88%92%e7%ae%97-yale-econ159-%e7%ad%86%e8%a8%98\/","title":{"rendered":"\ud83c\udfae \u8cfd\u5c40\u7406\u8ad6\uff1a\u773c\u524d\u5212\u7b97\uff0c\u4e0d\u7b49\u65bc\u9577\u671f\u5212\u7b97 | Yale ECON159 \u7b46\u8a18"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!DOCTYPE html><br \/>\n<html lang=\"zh-TW\"><br \/>\n<head><br \/>\n<meta charset=\"UTF-8\"><br \/>\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0\"><br \/>\n<title>\ud83c\udfae \u8cfd\u5c40\u7406\u8ad6\uff1a\u773c\u524d\u5212\u7b97\uff0c\u4e0d\u7b49\u65bc\u9577\u671f\u5212\u7b97 | Yale ECON159 \u7b46\u8a18<\/title><\/p>\n<style>\n * { box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0; padding: 0; }\n body { font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, \"PingFang TC\", \"Microsoft JhengHei\", sans-serif; line-height: 1.8; color: #1a1a2e; background: #f0f4f8; padding: 2rem; max-width: 860px; margin: 0 auto; }\n header { background: linear-gradient(135deg, #1a1a2e 0%, #16213e 50%, #0f3460 100%); color: white; padding: 3rem 2rem; border-radius: 20px; margin-bottom: 2rem; text-align: center; }\n header h1 { font-size: 2rem; margin-bottom: 0.5rem; }\n header .subtitle { color: #e94560; font-size: 1.1rem; }\n header .meta { margin-top: 1rem; font-size: 0.9rem; color: #a0aec0; }\n .intro { background: white; padding: 2rem; border-radius: 16px; margin-bottom: 2rem; border-left: 6px solid #e94560; }\n .intro p { font-size: 1.05rem; }\n .key-insight { background: linear-gradient(120deg, #ffeaa7 0%, #fdcb6e 100%); padding: 1.5rem; border-radius: 12px; margin: 2rem 0; text-align: center; font-size: 1.2rem; font-weight: bold; }\n .theory-card { background: white; border-radius: 16px; padding: 1.5rem; margin-bottom: 1.5rem; box-shadow: 0 2px 12px rgba(0,0,0,0.06); transition: transform 0.2s; }\n .theory-card:hover { transform: translateY(-2px); box-shadow: 0 4px 20px rgba(0,0,0,0.1); }\n .theory-card .number { display: inline-block; background: #e94560; color: white; width: 32px; height: 32px; border-radius: 50%; text-align: center; line-height: 32px; font-size: 0.85rem; margin-right: 0.5rem; }\n .theory-card h2 { display: inline; font-size: 1.2rem; color: #1a1a2e; }\n .theory-card .english { color: #7f8c8d; font-size: 0.9rem; margin-left: 0.5rem; font-style: italic; }\n .theory-card .english::before { content: \"\uff08\"; }\n .theory-card .english::after { content: \"\uff09\"; }\n .theory-card p { margin-top: 0.8rem; color: #2d3436; font-size: 1rem; }\n .section-title { font-size: 1.5rem; color: #1a1a2e; margin: 3rem 0 1.5rem 0; padding-bottom: 0.5rem; border-bottom: 3px solid #e94560; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 0.5rem; }\n .takeaways { background: linear-gradient(135deg, #1a1a2e, #16213e); color: white; border-radius: 16px; padding: 2rem; margin-top: 3rem; }\n .takeaways h2 { color: #e94560; margin-bottom: 1.5rem; font-size: 1.4rem; }\n .takeaway-item { background: rgba(255,255,255,0.08); border-radius: 12px; padding: 1.2rem; margin-bottom: 1rem; border-left: 4px solid #e94560; }\n .takeaway-item strong { color: #fdcb6e; }\n .final { background: linear-gradient(135deg, #e94560, #0f3460); color: white; text-align: center; padding: 2.5rem; border-radius: 16px; margin-top: 2rem; font-size: 1.15rem; line-height: 2; }\n .example-box { background: #f8f9fa; border-radius: 10px; padding: 1rem; margin-top: 0.8rem; font-size: 0.95rem; color: #555; border-left: 4px solid #74b9ff; }\n .tag { display: inline-block; background: #dfe6e9; color: #2d3436; padding: 2px 10px; border-radius: 20px; font-size: 0.8rem; margin-right: 4px; }\n footer { text-align: center; margin-top: 3rem; padding: 1.5rem; color: #95a5a6; font-size: 0.85rem; }\n<\/style>\n<p><\/head><br \/>\n<body><\/p>\n<header>\n<h1>\ud83c\udfae \u8cfd\u5c40\u7406\u8ad6\u5b8c\u6574\u653b\u7565<\/h1>\n<div class=\"subtitle\">\ud83d\udcfa Yale \u516c\u958b\u8ab2 ECON159\uff5c\u7b2c9-16\u8b1b\u7b46\u8a18<\/div>\n<div class=\"meta\">\u6388\u8ab2\u8001\u5e2b\uff1aBen Polak \uff5c \u8f49\u9304\uff1aAI Notebook\uff5cJim<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"intro\">\n<p>\ud83e\udd14 <strong>\u6838\u5fc3\u554f\u984c\uff1a<\/strong>\u4f60\u60f3\u597d\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u7b49\u5225\u4eba\u53cd\u61c9\u904e\u4f86\u4e4b\u5f8c\u9084\u5212\u7b97\u55ce\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udca1 <strong>\u7b54\u6848\uff1a<\/strong>\u96e3\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u773c\u524d\u5212\u7b97\u662f\u9577\u671f\u5212\u7b97\u3002\u9577\u671f\u5c31\u662f\u628a\u5225\u4eba\u6240\u6709\u7684\u53cd\u61c9\u90fd\u7b97\u9032\u53bb\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"key-insight\">\n \u26a0\ufe0f \u90198\u5802\u8ab2\u7d66\u4e86<strong>\u4e09\u500b\u65b9\u5411\u3001\u4e09\u7a2e\u7b54\u6848<\/strong>\uff0c\u4f46\u8aaa\u7684\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff01\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"section-title\">\ud83e\udde9 \u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff1a\u4f60\u88ab\u5c0d\u624b\u731c\u5230\u7684\u6642\u5019\u2014\u2014\u6df7\u5408\u7b56\u7565 Mixed Strategy<\/h2>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">1<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>\u6df7\u5408\u7b56\u7565<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">Mixed Strategy<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udccc <strong>\u6838\u5fc3\u554f\u984c\uff1a<\/strong>Venus \u6253\u7db2\u7403\uff0c\u6253\u5de6\u908a\u6216\u53f3\u908a\uff1f\u6253\u56fa\u5b9a\u4e00\u908a\u7b49\u65bc\u9001\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udd11 <strong>\u600e\u9ebc\u505a\uff1a<\/strong>\u4e0d\u8981\u56fa\u5b9a\uff0c\u7528\u4e00\u500b\u96a8\u6a5f\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6df7\u8457\u6253\uff08\u8b6c\u5982 6:4\uff09\uff0c\u8b93 Serena \u6c92\u8fa6\u6cd5\u63d0\u524d\u7ad9\u597d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u26a1 \u4eba\u5f88\u4e0d\u6703\u771f\u7684\u4e82\u6578\u2014\u2014\u5927\u8166\u6703\u5077\u5077\u898f\u5f8b\u5316\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8981\u7528\u786c\u5e63\u3001\u7d19\u689d\u4f86\u5e6b\u5fd9\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"example-box\">\n \ud83c\udfc0 <strong>\u5be6\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong>\u4e8c\u6230\u82f1\u570b\u6307\u63ee\u5b98\u6bcf\u5929\u7528\u731c\u786c\u5e63\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4fdd\u8b77\u54ea\u652f\u8eca\u968a\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u300c\u81ea\u5df1\u60f3\u7684\u9760\u4e0d\u4f4f\u300d\u3002<br \/>\n \ud83c\udfc3 <strong>\u5be6\u4f8b\uff1a<\/strong>\u76dc\u58d8\u7684\u8dd1\u8005\u6709\u6642\u8dd1\u6709\u6642\u4e0d\u8dd1\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u6559\u7df4\u6559\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u4ed6\u672c\u4f86\u5c31\u5728\u6df7\u3002\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">2<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>\u6df7\u5408\u7b56\u7565\u95dc\u9375\u6027\u8cea<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">Equalized Payoff Property<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udccc <strong>\u8acb\u5148\u8a18\u4f4f\u9019\u53e5\u8a71\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size:1.15rem; font-weight:bold; color:#e94560; text-align:center; padding: 1rem 0;\">\ud83c\udfaf \u6df7\u5728\u88e1\u9762\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u7a2e\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u5206\u6578\u4e00\u5b9a\u4e00\u6a23\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e0d\u7136\u65e9\u5c31\u88ab\u8e22\u51fa\u53bb\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udd0d <strong>\u602a\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff1a<\/strong>\u4f60\u60f3\u77e5\u9053 Serena \u600e\u9ebc\u5b88\uff0c\u770b\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u5979\u7684\u5206\u6578\uff0c\u662f Venus \u7684\u5206\u6578\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"example-box\">\n \ud83d\udca1 <strong>\u61c9\u7528\uff1a<\/strong>Serena \u53cd\u624b\u8b8a\u5f37\uff08\u597910\u6b21\u88e16\u6b21\u5f80\u5de6\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u5979\u53cd\u800c<strong>\u5c11\u5f80\u5de6<\/strong>\u5b88\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u70ba Venus \u6253\u5de6\u908a\u80fd\u62ff\u7684\u5206\u6578\u8b8a\u4e86\uff0cVenus \u5c31\u4e0d\u90a3\u9ebc\u60f3\u6253\u5de6\u908a\u4e86\uff0c\u7403\u4f86\u7684\u5c11\u4e86\uff0cSerena \u4e5f\u4e0d\u5fc5\u4e00\u76f4\u5b88\u5728\u90a3\u3002\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">3<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>\u6df7\u5408\u7b56\u7565\u4e09\u7a2e\u8b80\u6cd5<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">Three Readings of Mixed Strategy<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udd04 <strong>\u7b2c\u4e00\u7a2e\uff1a\u771f\u7684\u5728\u4e82\u6578<\/strong> <span class=\"tag\">\u7db2\u7403\u54e1<\/span> <span class=\"tag\">\u76dc\u58d8\u8dd1\u8005<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udd2e <strong>\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7a2e\uff1a\u5225\u4eba\u5fc3\u88e1\u5c0d\u4f60\u7684\u731c\u6e2c<\/strong> <span class=\"tag\">\u7d04\u6703\u4f8b\u5b50<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:2rem\">Nina \u548c David \u6839\u672c\u6c92\u4e1f\u9285\u677f\uff0c\u4f46 David \u89ba\u5f97 Nina \u5927\u6982\u6703\u53bb\u679c\u5712\u2014\u2014\u90a3\u500b\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5c31\u5df2\u7d93\u5728\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7d50\u679c\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udc65 <strong>\u7b2c\u4e09\u7a2e\uff1a\u4e00\u5927\u7fa4\u4eba\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b<\/strong> <span class=\"tag\">\u5831\u7a05\u4f8b\u5b50<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:2rem\">\u6bcf3\u500b\u4eba\u67092\u500b\u8001\u5be6\u7e73\u7a05\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u8ab0\u5728\u4e1f\u9285\u677f\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u7fa4\u4eba\u88e1\u6709\u7684\u4eba\u9019\u6a23\u6709\u7684\u4eba\u90a3\u6a23\uff0c\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5c31\u505c\u5728\u90a3\u88e1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u26a0\ufe0f \u7f70\u91d1\u52a0\u500d\u2192\u8001\u5be6\u7684\u4eba\u6c92\u8b8a\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u67e5\u5e33\u7684\u4eba\u8b8a\u61f6\u4e86\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u70ba\u67e5\u5e33\u7684\u4eba\u4e5f\u5728\u6df7\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">4<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>\u8b58\u5225<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">Identification<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udd2c \u5f9e\u770b\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u628a\u7406\u8ad6\u88e1\u770b\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u6771\u897f\u7b97\u51fa\u4f86\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"example-box\">\n \ud83d\udcca \u5f9e\u7403\u5834\u4e0a\u6253\u67b6\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u53cd\u63a8\u51fa\u734e\u54c1\u8ddf\u50b7\u5bb3\u7684\u6bd4\u503c\u3002<br \/>\n \ud83d\udcb0 \u6709\u9322\u4eba\u6bd4\u8f03\u5e38\u88ab\u67e5\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u4e0d\u8001\u5be6\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u6383\u4e00\u6b21\u8cfa\u7684\u6bd4\u8f03\u591a\uff0c\u8981\u591a\u67e5\u5e7e\u6b21\u624d\u80fd\u58d3\u56de\u539f\u4f86\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002<br \/>\n \u26a1 <strong>\u771f\u6b63\u60f3\u8b93\u66f4\u591a\u4eba\u5b88\u6cd5\uff0c\u6539\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u8655\u7f70\uff0c\u662f\u67e5\u5e33\u90a3\u4e00\u65b9\u7684\u8a98\u56e0\u3002<\/strong>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"section-title\">\ud83e\uddec \u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8\u5206\uff1a\u6839\u672c\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u5728\u7b97\u2014\u2014\u6f14\u5316\u7a69\u5b9a Evolutionarily Stable Strategy<\/h2>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">5<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>\u6f14\u5316\u7a69\u5b9a\u7b56\u7565<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">Evolutionarily Stable Strategy (ESS)<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83e\uddec \u7b56\u7565\u66ff\u63db\u6210\u57fa\u56e0\uff0c\u5206\u6578\u66ff\u63db\u6210\u80fd\u7559\u4e0b\u591a\u5c11\u5f8c\u4ee3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udccc <strong>\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff1a<\/strong>\u4e00\u6574\u7fa4\u90fd\u7528\u540c\u4e00\u7a2e\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c11\u6578\u5916\u4eba\u5e36\u8457\u5225\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u9032\u4f86\uff0c\u6399\u4e0d\u5230\u4fbf\u5b9c\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u81ea\u5df1\u6d88\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"example-box\">\n \ud83d\udc1c \u4e00\u958b\u59cb\u5168\u73ed\u90fd\u662f\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u879e\u87fb \u2192 \u653e\u9032\u4e00\u96bb\u4e0d\u5408\u4f5c\u7684 Rahul \u2192 Rahul \u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u591a \u2192\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u6162\u6162\u4e0d\u898b\u4e86\u3002<br \/>\n \u26a0\ufe0f <strong>\u5408\u4f5c\u4e0d\u662f\u6f14\u5316\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684<\/strong>\u2014\u2014\u5916\u4eba\u4e00\u65e6\u9032\u4f86\u5c31\u6399\u5230\u4fbf\u5b9c\u3002<br \/>\n \ud83d\udd11 <strong>\u53ef\u662f\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u52d5\u7269\u771f\u7684\u6703\u5408\u4f5c\uff1f<\/strong>\u56e0\u70ba\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u8a2d\u7121\u6027\u751f\u6b96\u3002\u73fe\u5be6\u52d5\u7269\u6709\u7238\u7238\u6709\u5abd\u5abd\uff0c\u57fa\u56e0\u6703\u5206\u5230\u5144\u5f1f\u59d0\u59b9\u8eab\u4e0a\u2014\u2014\u4f60\u662f\u4e00\u96bb\u879e\u87fb\u4f60\u885d\u51fa\u53bb\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6b7b\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u8349\u88e1\u5f88\u591a\u662f\u4f60\u7684\u59d0\u59b9\uff0c\u4f60\u6b7b\u4e86\u4ed6\u5011\u6d3b\u4e0b\u4f86\uff0c\u90a3\u6bb5\u57fa\u56e0\u7167\u6a23\u50b3\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002<strong>\u5408\u4f5c\u662f\u5f9e\u89aa\u621a\u95dc\u4fc2\u88e1\u9577\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u3002<\/strong>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">6<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>\u7d0d\u8a31\u5747\u8861 \u2194 \u6f14\u5316\u7a69\u5b9a\uff1a\u5e7e\u4e4e\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">Nash Equilibrium \u2248 ESS<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udccc \u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78 1950 \u5e74\u4ee3\u6709\u7d0d\u8a31\u5747\u8861\uff0c\u751f\u7269\u5b78 1971 \u5e74\u6709 ESS\uff0c\u5169\u8005\u51fa\u767c\u9ede\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4f46\u5e7e\u4e4e\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udd04 <strong>\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f<\/strong>\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u7a2e\u505a\u6cd5\u4e0d\u662f\u5c0d\u5225\u4eba\u6700\u597d\u7684\u56de\u61c9\uff0c\u5c31\u4ee3\u8868\u6709\u53e6\u4e00\u7a2e\u505a\u6cd5\u66f4\u597d\uff0c\u90a3\u7a2e\u505a\u6cd5\u8b8a\u6210\u7a81\u8b8a\u95d6\u9032\u4f86\u5c31\u6703\u4f54\u5230\u4fbf\u5b9c\uff0c\u539f\u4f86\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u4e5f\u5c31\u4e0d\u7a69\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"example-box\">\n \ud83e\udd81 Polak \u7684\u6bd4\u55bb\uff1a17\u4e16\u7d00\u5927\u5bb6\u767c\u73fe\u884c\u661f\u600e\u9ebc\u8f49\u8ddf\u6642\u9418\u600e\u9ebc\u8d70\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u5957\u529b\u5b78\u3002\u5927\u6982\u53ea\u6709\u5c11\u6578\u540c\u5b78\u6703\u8ddf\u4ed6\u4e00\u8d77\u8208\u596e\u3002\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">7<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>\u9df9\u9d3f\u8cfd\u5c40<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">Hawk-Dove Game<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83e\udd85 <strong>\u9df9\uff1a<\/strong>\u9047\u5230\u5c31\u6253\uff0c\u6253\u7684\u4ee3\u50f9\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u65b7\u817f\u6216\u6c92\u547d\uff08\u50b7\u5bb3\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udd4a\ufe0f <strong>\u9d3f\uff1a<\/strong>\u9047\u5230\u5c31\u8b93\uff0c\u4e0d\u6703\u53d7\u50b7\u4f46\u4e5f\u62ff\u4e0d\u5230\u734e\u54c1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83c\udfc6 <strong>\u734e\u54c1\uff1a<\/strong>\u98df\u7269\u3001\u5730\u76e4\u3001\u4ea4\u914d\u6a5f\u6703\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcca <strong>\u5169\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:1rem\">\u2460 \u734e\u54c1 > \u50b7\u5bb3 \u2192 \u5168\u7576\u9df9\u624d\u7a69\u5b9a\uff08\u7345\u5b50\u6253\u67b6\u5c31\u662f\u9019\u6a23\uff09<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left:1rem\">\u2461 \u50b7\u5bb3 > \u734e\u54c1 \u2192 \u9df9\u8ddf\u9d3f\u6df7\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u6bd4\u4f8b = \u734e\u54c1 \u00f7 \u50b7\u5bb3\uff08\u734e\u54c1\u8d8a\u5927\u9df9\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u50b7\u5bb3\u8d8a\u5927\u9d3f\u8d8a\u591a\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\ud83e\uddea <strong>\u53b2\u5bb3\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff1a<\/strong>\u9019\u500b\u7406\u8ad6\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u6aa2\u9a57\uff01\u734e\u54c1\u548c\u50b7\u5bb3\u5728\u91ce\u5916\u770b\u4e0d\u5230\uff0c\u4f46\u6253\u67b6\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u770b\u5f97\u5230\uff0c\u4e00\u6578\u51fa\u4f86\u5c31\u80fd\u53cd\u63a8\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"example-box\">\n \ud83e\udd8e <strong>\u9a57\u8b49\uff1a<\/strong>1990\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u5728 Nature \u671f\u520a\u767c\u8868\u4e86\u4e00\u7a2e\u8725\u8734\u6709\u4e09\u7a2e\u984f\u8272\u2014\u2014\u6a58\u8272\u5730\u76e4\u5927\u3001\u9ec3\u8272\u5077\u4f54\u4fbf\u5b9c\u3001\u85cd\u8272\u5730\u76e4\u5c0f\u3002\u65cf\u7fa4\u7684\u984f\u8272\u6bd4\u4f8b\u771f\u7684\u7167\u8457\u6a21\u578b\u8aaa\u7684\u5728\u7e5e\u5708\uff01Polak \u8aaa\u9019\u5c0d\u751f\u7269\u5b78\u5bb6\u4f86\u8aaa\u5c31\u50cf\u627e\u5230\u9ed1\u6d1e\u3002\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">8<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>\u9760\u5de6\u9760\u53f3\u90fd\u662f\u7a69\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u6bd4\u8f03\u597d<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">Multiple Equilibria<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\ude97 \u82f1\u570b\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u6fb3\u6d32\u9760\u5de6\uff1b\u6cd5\u570b\u3001\u7f8e\u570b\u9760\u53f3\u3002\u5169\u500b\u90fd\u7a69\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u26a0\ufe0f <strong>\u53ef\u662f\u7a69\u4e86\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u6bd4\u8f03\u597d\uff1a<\/strong>\u4e00\u500b\u793e\u6703\u7167\u6a23\u53ef\u80fd\u505c\u5728\u6b21\u512a\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u518d\u4e5f\u6539\u4e0d\u52d5\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u70ba\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u6539\u7684\u4eba\u4e00\u5b9a\u5148\u5403\u8667\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcac <strong>\u90a3\u53e5\u8a71\u5728\u9019\u88e1\u525b\u597d\u76f8\u53cd\uff1a<\/strong>\u7559\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u6700\u597d\u7684\uff0c\u7559\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u53ea\u662f\u6c92\u6709\u88ab\u63a8\u7ffb\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"section-title\">\ud83d\uddfa\ufe0f \u7b2c\u4e09\u90e8\u5206\uff1a\u5c0d\u65b9\u770b\u5f97\u5230\u4f60\u7684\u6642\u5019\u2014\u2014\u9006\u5411\u6b78\u7d0d Backward Induction<\/h2>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">9<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>\u9006\u5411\u6b78\u7d0d<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">Backward Induction<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83c\udfaf <strong>Polak \u8aaa\uff1a\u9019\u662f\u9019\u5b78\u671f\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e00\u6a23\u6771\u897f\u3002\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4f60\u5728\u8036\u9b6f\u5b78\u5230\u6700\u6709\u7528\u7684\u4e00\u6a23\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\ud83e\udded <strong>\u600e\u9ebc\u505a\uff1a<\/strong>\u5f9e\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u6b65\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u4e00\u6b65\u4e00\u6b65\u5f80\u56de\u63a8\u3002\u5c31\u50cf\u8d70\u8ff7\u5bae\uff0c\u4f60\u4e0d\u5f9e\u5165\u53e3\u786c\u95d6\uff0c\u4f60\u5f9e\u51fa\u53e3\u5012\u8457\u5283\u56de\u4f86\uff0c\u8def\u4e00\u4e0b\u5c31\u6e05\u695a\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"example-box\">\n \ud83e\uddf1 <strong>\u5e3d\u5b50\u904a\u6232\uff1a<\/strong>\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u653e 0\/1\/3 \u584a\u9322\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ddf\u8457\u653e\u4e00\u8d77\u7ffb\u500d\uff0c\u6216\u76f4\u63a5\u62ff\u8d70\u3002\u6c92\u4eba\u653e 3 \u584a\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u70ba Justin \u5012\u8457\u7b97\uff1a\u653e 3 \u584a\uff0cNate \u4e00\u5b9a\u76f4\u63a5\u62ff\u8d70\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u653e 1 \u584a\u8ddf\u8457\u653e\u6bd4\u8f03\u5212\u7b97\u3002<br \/>\n \ud83e\udd81 <strong>\u7345\u5b50\u5403\u7f8a\u904a\u6232\uff1a<\/strong>\u5f9e\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u96bb\u5f80\u56de\u63a8\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u96bb\u6709\u5403\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u4e00\u5b9a\u5403\uff0c\u5012\u6578\u7b2c\u4e8c\u96bb\u4e0d\u6562\u5403\uff0c\u5012\u6578\u7b2c\u4e09\u96bb\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5403\u2026\u2026\u4e00\u76f4\u4ea4\u66ff\uff0c\u56de\u5230\u6700\u5927\u90a3\u96bb\u2014\u2014<strong>\u4ed6\u5176\u5be6\u53ef\u4ee5\u5403\uff01<\/strong>\u53ef\u662f\u5927\u5bb6\u76f4\u89ba\u90fd\u8aaa\u4e0d\u5403\uff08\u53ea\u770b\u4e86\u4e00\u6b65\uff09\u3002<br \/>\n <strong>Polak \u7b11\u8aaa\uff1a5\u5206\u9418\u524d\u6211\u624d\u8b1b\u9006\u5411\u6b78\u7d0d\u6700\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u7528\u3002<\/strong>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">10<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>\u9053\u5fb7\u98a8\u96aa<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">Moral Hazard<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcb8 <strong>\u554f\u984c\uff1a<\/strong>\u51fa\u9322\u7684\u4eba\uff08VC\uff09\u4e0d\u6562\u591a\u653e\u9322\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u62ff\u5230\u9322\u7684\u5275\u696d\u7684\u4eba\u5982\u679c\u5e36\u8457\u9322\u8dd1\u6389\u66f4\u5212\u7b97\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udc94 \u5169\u500b\u4eba\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\u5927\u6848\u5b50\u6bd4\u8f03\u597d\uff0c\u537b\u53ea\u80fd\u505a\u5c0f\u7684\u2014\u2014\u9019\u662f\u9053\u5fb7\u98a8\u96aa\u6700\u96e3\u53d7\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"example-box\">\n \ud83d\ude97 \u4f60\u8cb7\u4e86\u6c7d\u8eca\u5168\u984d\u4fdd\u96aa\uff0c\u4fdd\u96aa\u516c\u53f8\u4e0d\u8b93\u4f60\u4fdd\u5168\u984d\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u4f60\u81ea\u5df1\u4ed8\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u70ba\u5168\u984d\u4fdd\u4e86\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u61f6\u5f97\u9396\u8eca\u9580\u3002\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">11<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>\u627f\u8afe<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">Commitment<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udd25 <strong>\u6838\u5fc3\uff1a<\/strong>\u5148\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u9078\u9805\u62ff\u6389\uff0c\u8b93\u5c0d\u65b9\u76f8\u4fe1\u4f60\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u53ea\u6703\u90a3\u6a23\u505a\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"example-box\">\n \ud83d\udea2 <strong>\u71d2\u8239\uff1a<\/strong>1066\u5e74\u5a01\u5ec9\u6e21\u6d77\u5f8c\u628a\u8239\u71d2\u4e86\uff0c\u58eb\u5175\u6c92\u6709\u9000\u8def\u53ea\u80fd\u5f80\u524d\u6253\uff0c\u5c0d\u9762\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u6562\u885d\u3002<br \/>\n \ud83c\udfe0 <strong>\u62bc\u623f\u5b50\uff1a<\/strong>\u4f60\u53bb\u501f\u9322\u5275\u696d\uff0c\u9280\u884c\u8981\u4f60\u62bc\u7238\u5abd\u7684\u623f\u5b50\u3002\u91cd\u9ede\u4e0d\u662f\u4f60\u8dd1\u4e86\u9280\u884c\u6709\u623f\u5b50\u2014\u2014\u91cd\u9ede\u662f\u4f60\u4e00\u8dd1\u5c31\u6703\u5931\u53bb\u5b83\uff0c\u4f60\u628a\u67d0\u4e00\u689d\u8def\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u5f04\u5f97\u5f88\u6158\uff0c\u5c0d\u65b9\u5012\u8457\u7b97\u5c31\u6562\u501f\u4f60\u5927\u9322\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5206\u6578\u8b8a\u4f4e\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u53cd\u800c\u62ff\u7684\u66f4\u591a\u3002\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">12<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>\u6c89\u6c92\u6210\u672c\uff08\u9006\u7528\uff09<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">Sunk Cost (Reversed)<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udc8e \u5e73\u5e38\u6211\u5011\u8aaa\u6c89\u6c92\u6210\u672c\u662f\u5305\u88b1\uff0c\u8981\u5b78\u8457\u653e\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u26a1 <strong>\u9019\u88e1\u525b\u597d\u76f8\u53cd\uff1a<\/strong>\u9322\u7838\u4e0b\u53bb\u62ff\u4e0d\u56de\u4f86\uff0c\u5c0d\u65b9\u624d\u76f8\u4fe1\u4f60\u662f\u8a8d\u771f\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"example-box\">\n \ud83c\udfed <strong>\u84cb\u5370\u5237\u5ee0\uff1a<\/strong>Murdock\u8aaa\u8981\u5370\u5f88\u591a\u5831\u7d19\uff0c\u5c0d\u9762\u6191\u4ec0\u9ebc\u76f8\u4fe1\uff1f\u5149\u8aaa\u6c92\u7528\uff0c\u8981\u771f\u7684\u628a\u5370\u5237\u5ee0\u84cb\u8d77\u4f86\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0d\u80fd\u96a8\u4fbf\u7576\u5ee2\u9435\u8ce3\u6389\u2014\u2014\u9019\u7a2e\u9322\u53eb<strong>\u6c89\u6c92\u6210\u672c\uff08Sink Cost \/ Sunk Cost\uff09<\/strong>\u3002\u8aaa\u7a7f\u4e86\u8ddf\u71d2\u8239\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff1a<strong>\u4f60\u628a\u9000\u8def\u6536\u6389\uff0c\u5c0d\u9762\u7684\u7b97\u76e4\u624d\u6703\u8ddf\u8457\u8b8a\u3002<\/strong>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">13<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>\u8a98\u56e0\u8a2d\u8a08<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">Incentive Design<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u2699\ufe0f <strong>\u610f\u601d\u662f\uff1a<\/strong>\u628a\u898f\u5247\u6539\u5230\u5c0d\u65b9\u81ea\u5df1\u505a\u5c0d\u7684\u4e8b\u4e5f\u6700\u5212\u7b97\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u53bb\u76ef\u8457\u4ed6\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"example-box\">\n \ud83d\udcb0 \u5927\u6848\u5b50\u505a\u6210\uff0c\u51fa\u9322\u7684\u4eba\u62ff\u5927\u982d\uff0c\u5275\u696d\u7684\u4eba\u62ff\u5c0f\u982d \u2192 \u5275\u696d\u7684\u4eba\u5be7\u53ef\u628a\u9322\u6574\u5305\u62ff\u8d70\u3002<br \/>\n \u2705 <strong>\u6539\u6cd5\uff1a<\/strong>\u8b93\u5275\u696d\u7684\u4eba\u591a\u62ff\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u591a\u5230\u628a\u9322\u9084\u56de\u53bb\u6bd4\u62ff\u8d70\u66f4\u5212\u7b97\u3002\u9019\u6a23\u4ed6\u5c31\u4e0d\u8dd1\u4e86\uff0c\u5927\u6848\u5b50\u505a\u5f97\u6210\uff0c\u51fa\u9322\u7684\u4eba\u5206\u5230\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8b8a\u5c0f\u4f46\u9905\u8b8a\u5927\u4e86\uff0c\u62ff\u5230\u7684\u9322\u53cd\u800c\u6bd4\u505a\u5c0f\u6848\u5b50\u591a\u3002\n <\/div>\n<p>\ud83d\ude02 <strong>Polak \u81ea\u5632\uff1a<\/strong>\u4ed6\u5e36\u4e09\u6b72\u5973\u5152\u53bb\u6458\u8986\u76c6\u5b50\uff0c\u8aaa\u597d\u58d3\u58de\u7684\u53ef\u4ee5\u7576\u5834\u5403\u5b8c\uff0c\u5973\u5152\u6458\u4e00\u9846\u8f49\u982d\u8aaa\u300c\u58d3\u58de\u4e86\u300d\u653e\u9032\u5634\u88e1\uff0c\u518d\u6458\u4e00\u9846\u53c8\u58d3\u58de\u4e86\u3002\u4e00\u500b\u4e09\u6b72\u5c0f\u5b69\u61c2\u5f97\u9053\u5fb7\u98a8\u96aa\u6bd4\u6559\u6388\u9084\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">14<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>\u4e0d\u53ef\u4fe1\u7684\u5a01\u8105<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">Non-credible Threat<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udeab <strong>\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff1a<\/strong>\u8aaa\u5230\u4e86\u95dc\u982d\u537b\u4e0d\u6703\u505a\u7684\u8a71\u3002<\/p>\n<div class=\"example-box\">\n \ud83c\udfea \u8001\u5e97\u8aaa\u300c\u4f60\u6562\u9032\u4f86\u6211\u5c31\u8ddf\u4f60\u62fc\u5230\u5e95\u300d\uff0c\u4f46\u7528\u9006\u5411\u6b78\u7d0d\u8d70\u4e00\u6b21\uff1a\u7576\u65b0\u5e97\u5df2\u7d93\u9032\u4f86\u4e86\uff0c\u62fc\u4e0b\u53bb\u8001\u5e97\u81ea\u5df1\u4e5f\u4e00\u6bdb\u90fd\u8cfa\u4e0d\u5230\uff0c\u548c\u5e73\u5206\u9084\u6709\u4e00\u4efd\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5230\u4e86\u90a3\u4e00\u523b\u4ed6\u4e0d\u6703\u62fc\u2014\u2014\u9019\u53e5\u5a01\u8105\u6b63\u597d\u5beb\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u8d70\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u7406\u6027\u8a08\u7b97\u76f4\u63a5\u5ffd\u7565\u3002\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">15<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>\u9023\u9396\u5e97\u6096\u8ad6<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">Chainstore Paradox<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83c\udfec <strong>\u7406\u8ad6\u8aaa\uff1a<\/strong>\u8001\u5e97\u7528\u9006\u5411\u6b78\u7d0d\u4e00\u6b65\u4e00\u6b65\u63a8\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u57ce\u93ae\u65b0\u5e97\u90fd\u8a72\u9032\uff0c\u8001\u5e97\u4e00\u500b\u90fd\u64cb\u4e0d\u4f4f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83c\udfad <strong>\u73fe\u5be6\u662f\uff1a<\/strong>Polak \u5728\u8ab2\u5802\u4e0a\u8acb\u540c\u5b78\u626e\u8001\u5e97\uff0c\u7d50\u679c Elle \u771f\u7684\u64cb\u4f4f\u4e86\u597d\u5e7e\u5bb6\uff0c\u7406\u8ad6\u8ddf\u73fe\u5be6\u5b8c\u5168\u5c0d\u4e0d\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83e\udde0 <strong>\u554f\u984c\u51fa\u5728\u54ea\uff1f<\/strong>1% \u7684\u61f7\u7591\u3002\u5047\u8a2d\u5927\u5bb6\u5fc3\u88e1\u89ba\u5f97\u4ed6\u6709 1% \u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u662f\u500b\u771f\u7684\u611b\u6253\u67b6\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u8ce0\u9322\u4e5f\u8981\u62fc\u300210\u500b\u57ce\u93ae\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u9019 1% \u7d2f\u7a4d\u8d77\u4f86\u5f8c\u9762\u7684\u4eba\u5c31\u4e0d\u6562\u8ced\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83c\udfad <strong>\u6240\u4ee5\uff1a<\/strong>\u6e05\u9192\u7684\u8001\u95c6\u6709\u6642\u5019\u62fc\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u5019\u4e0d\u62fc\u2014\u2014\u53c8\u56de\u5230\u4e86\u6df7\u5408\u7b56\u7565\u3002<strong>\u540d\u8072\u5c31\u662f\u4f4f\u5728\u5225\u4eba\u5fc3\u88e1\u7684\u90a3\u500b\u731c\u6e2c\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">16<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>\u540d\u8072\u7684\u5169\u7a2e\u7528\u9014<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">Two Faces of Reputation<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\ude24 <strong>\u5147\u7684\u540d\u8072\uff1a<\/strong>\u8b93\u4eba\u4e0d\u6562\u60f9\u4f60\uff08\u98ef\u684c\u4e0a\u813e\u6c23\u6025\u7684\u4eba\u5e38\u5e38\u62ff\u5230\u4ed6\u8981\u7684\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\ud83e\udd1d <strong>\u8aa0\u5be6\u7684\u540d\u8072\uff1a<\/strong>\u8b93\u4eba\u9858\u610f\u4fe1\u4f60\uff08\u91ab\u751f\u3001\u6703\u8a08\u5e2b\u9760\u7684\u662f\u300c\u9019\u500b\u4eba\u6703\u8aaa\u5be6\u8a71\u300d\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcb8 <strong>Arthur Anderson \u6703\u8a08\u5e2b\u4e8b\u52d9\u6240\uff1a<\/strong>\u5728\u5b89\u9686\u919c\u805e\u5f8c\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u5012\u9589\u4e86\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u9760\u7684\u90a3\u6a23\u6771\u897f\u4e0d\u898b\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udca1 <strong>\u5169\u7a2e\u540d\u8072\u90fd\u4e00\u6a23\uff1a<\/strong>\u524d\u9762\u4e00\u6b21\u4e00\u6b21\u505a\u5230\uff0c\u624d\u4f4f\u9032\u5225\u4eba\u5fc3\u88e1\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">17<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Stackelberg \u6a21\u578b \/ \u5148\u52d5\u8005\u512a\u52e2<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">Stackelberg Model \/ First-mover Advantage<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83c\udfed \u5148\u52d5\u7684\u90a3\u5bb6\u628a\u7522\u91cf\u62c9\u9ad8\uff0c\u903c\u5c0d\u65b9\u5c11\u505a\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u8cfa\u7684\u6bd4\u540c\u6642\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6642\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u26a0\ufe0f <strong>\u53ef\u662f\u5148\u52d5\u6709\u500b\u524d\u63d0\uff1a<\/strong>\u5c0d\u65b9\u8981\u76f8\u4fe1\u4f60\u771f\u7684\u5df2\u7d93\u52d5\u4e86\u3002\u5149\u662f\u5ba3\u5e03\u6c92\u7528\uff0c\u8981\u8b93\u9019\u53e5\u8a71\u7b97\u6578\u5c31\u5f97\u771f\u7684\u7838\u9322\uff08\u6c89\u6c92\u6210\u672c\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udeab <strong>\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u51e1\u4e8b\u5148\u52d5\u90fd\u597d\uff1a<\/strong>\u731c\u62f3\u5f8c\u51fa\u3001\u8b93\u5225\u4eba\u5148\u8cb7\u65b0\u8a2d\u5099\u770b\u597d\u4e0d\u597d\u518d\u8ddf\u2014\u2014\u9019\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u5f8c\u52d5\u6bd4\u8f03\u597d\u3002\u9084\u6709\u4e00\u7a2e\u662f\u5169\u908a\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u512a\u52e2\uff08\u5206\u86cb\u7cd5\u4e00\u4eba\u5207\u4e00\u4eba\u5148\u6311\uff0c\u8ab0\u90fd\u4f54\u4e0d\u5230\u4fbf\u5b9c\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">18<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>\u9593\u8adc\u7684\u6096\u8ad6<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">The Spy Paradox<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udd75\ufe0f Murdock \u5728\u5c0d\u624b\u7684\u6703\u8b70\u5ba4\u5b89\u63d2\u4e86\u9593\u8adc\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u53cd\u800c\u8667\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udd0d <strong>\u539f\u56e0\uff1a<\/strong>\u4f60\u628a\u771f\u7684\u8a08\u5283\u900f\u9732\u7d66\u5c0d\u624b\u770b\uff0c\u5c0d\u624b\u770b\u5230\u4f60\u505a\u591a\u4e86\uff0c\u53ea\u597d\u7e2e\u5c0f\u2014\u2014\u4f60\u53cd\u800c\u88ab\u63a8\u5230\u5148\u52d5\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4e0a\uff0c\u7b49\u65bc\u662f\u88ab\u9593\u8adc\u63a8\u5230\u52a3\u52e2\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udca1 <strong>\u7d50\u8ad6\uff1a<\/strong>\u9593\u8adc\u8b93\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u66f4\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u4e00\u5834\u8cfd\u5c40\u88e1\u77e5\u9053\u591a\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u4e0d\u5403\u8667\u2014\u2014\u56e0\u70ba\u6539\u8b8a\u4e86\u5c0d\u9762\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">19<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Zermelo \u5b9a\u7406<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">Zermelo&#8217;s Theorem<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcd0 \u6eff\u8db3\u689d\u4ef6\u7684\u904a\u6232\u4e00\u5b9a\u6709\u7b54\u6848\uff1a\u5169\u4eba\u8f2a\u6d41\u8d70\u3001\u770b\u5f97\u898b\u524d\u9762\u6bcf\u4e00\u6b65\u3001\u4e0d\u6703\u6c92\u5b8c\u6c92\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83c\udfc1 \u7d50\u679c\u53ea\u6709\u4e09\u7a2e\uff1a\u5148\u624b\u6709\u8fa6\u6cd5\u4e00\u5b9a\u8d0f \/ \u5148\u624b\u6709\u8fa6\u6cd5\u81f3\u5c11\u5408\u5c40 \/ \u5f8c\u624b\u6709\u8fa6\u6cd5\u4e00\u5b9a\u8d0f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u265f\ufe0f \u897f\u6d0b\u68cb\u4e5f\u6eff\u8db3\u9019\u4e9b\u689d\u4ef6\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4e00\u5b9a\u6709\u7b54\u6848\u2014\u2014\u8b49\u660e\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c31\u662f\u5f9e\u51fa\u53e3\u4e00\u683c\u4e00\u683c\u5012\u8457\u63a8\u56de\u4f86\u3002<strong>\u4f46\u9019\u500b\u5b9a\u7406\u53ea\u8aaa\u7b54\u6848\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4e0d\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\u7b54\u6848\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u3002<\/strong>\u6211\u5011\u5230\u4eca\u5929\u9084\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u767d\u68cb\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u4e00\u5b9a\u8d0f\u9084\u662f\u53ea\u80fd\u5408\u5c40\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">20<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>NIM \u904a\u6232<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">Nim<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83c\udfae \u5169\u5806\u77f3\u982d\u8f2a\u6d41\u62ff\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u53ea\u80fd\u5f9e\u4e00\u5806\u62ff\uff0c\u62ff\u5e7e\u9846\u90fd\u884c\uff0c\u62ff\u5230\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u9846\u7684\u4eba\u8d0f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udd11 <strong>\u8ae6\u7ac5\uff1a<\/strong>\u628a\u5169\u5806\u5f04\u6210\u4e00\u6a23\u591a\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u5c0d\u65b9\u5728\u4e00\u5806\u62ff\u5e7e\u9846\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u518d\u53e6\u4e00\u5806\u62ff\u4e00\u6a23\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83e\udde0 <strong>\u6700\u6709\u610f\u601d\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff1a<\/strong>\u77f3\u982d\u4e00\u64fa\u4e0a\u684c\uff0c\u8ab0\u6703\u8d0f\u5c31\u5b9a\u4e86\u2014\u2014\u8ddf\u9019\u4e00\u6574\u9580\u8ab2\u8981\u8aaa\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e00\u6a21\u4e00\u6a23\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">21<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>\u5e8f\u5217\u8cfd\u5c40<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">Sequential Game<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udccb \u5927\u5bb6\u7167\u9806\u5e8f\u52d5\uff0c\u91cd\u9ede\u4e0d\u5728\u8ab0\u5148\u8ab0\u5f8c\uff0c\u5728\u5f8c\u9762\u7684\u4eba\u770b\u5f97\u5230\u524d\u9762\u7684\u4eba\u505a\u4e86\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u524d\u9762\u7684\u4eba\u77e5\u9053\u4ed6\u770b\u5f97\u5230\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83c\udfaf <strong>\u5e3d\u5b50\u904a\u6232\u5c31\u662f\u5e8f\u5217\u8cfd\u5c40\uff1a<\/strong>\u7db2\u7403\u662f\u5169\u4eba\u540c\u6642\u6c7a\u5b9a\u53ea\u80fd\u731c\uff0c\u5e3d\u5b50\u662f\u770b\u4e86\u518d\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u653e\u9322\u7684\u4eba\u5f97\u5148\u60f3\u597d\u5c0d\u65b9\u770b\u5230\u4e4b\u5f8c\u6703\u600e\u9ebc\u505a\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"theory-card\">\n <span class=\"number\">22<\/span><\/p>\n<h2>\u6d77\u7dbf\u904a\u6232 \/ \u6700\u5f8c\u7684\u898f\u5247<\/h2>\n<p> <span class=\"english\">The Sponge Game<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\ud83e\uddfd \u5169\u500b\u4eba\u5404\u62ff\u4e00\u584a\u6d77\u7dbf\u7ad9\u5728\u8d70\u9053\u5169\u7aef\uff0c\u8f2a\u5230\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e1f\u51fa\u53bb\uff08\u4e1f\u4e2d\u5c31\u8d0f\uff09\u6216\u5f80\u524d\u8d70\u4e00\u6b65\uff08\u96e2\u5f97\u8d8a\u8fd1\u8d8a\u5bb9\u6613\u4e2d\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u4e1f\u51fa\u53bb\u5c31\u6c92\u4e86\uff0c\u5c0d\u65b9\u53ef\u4ee5\u6162\u6162\u8d70\u904e\u4f86\u628a\u6d77\u7dbf\u653e\u5728\u4f60\u982d\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u2753 \u554f\u984c\uff1a\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6642\u5019\u8a72\u4e1f\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcd0 <strong>\u7b54\u6848\uff08\u9006\u5411\u6b78\u7d0d\uff09\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:center; font-size:1.2rem; font-weight:bold; color:#e94560; padding:1rem;\">\u6211\u4eca\u5929\u4e1f\u4e2d\u7684\u6a5f\u7387 \uff0b \u4f60\u660e\u5929\u4e1f\u4e2d\u7684\u6a5f\u7387 > 1 \u2192 \u4eca\u5929\u5c31\u8a72\u4e1f<\/p>\n<p>\ud83e\udde0 <strong>\u5c31\u662f\u8d70\u5230\u96e2\u5f97\u8db3\u5920\u8fd1\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u523b\uff0c\u5169\u908a\u6e96\u982d\u90fd\u597d\u5230\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u300c\u4eca\u5929\u52a0\u660e\u5929 > 1\u300d\u90a3\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u8f2a\u5230\u8ab0\u8ab0\u5c31\u4e1f\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u26a0\ufe0f <strong>Polak \u7684\u63d0\u9192\uff1a<\/strong>\u9019\u500b\u904a\u6232\u4ed6\u73a9\u4e86\u591a\u5e74\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u5728\u5927\u5b78\u90e8\u9084\u662f\u5546\u5b78\u9662\uff0c\u540c\u5b78\u5e7e\u4e4e\u90fd\u4e1f\u5f97\u592a\u65e9\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4eba\u5e38\u5e38\u5c0d\u81ea\u5df1\u592a\u6709\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u5f9e\u5c0f\u88ab\u6559\u8981\u4e3b\u52d5\u3001\u8981\u638c\u63e1\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u547d\u904b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcac <strong>\u4ed6\u7684\u8a71\uff1a<\/strong>\u300c\u4eba\u751f\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u5012\u4e0b\u4e4b\u524d\u6709\u63ee\u904e\u62f3\uff0c\u662f\u4e0d\u8981\u5012\u4e0b\u3002\u6709\u6642\u5019\u7b49\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"section-title\">\ud83c\udfc6 \u8cab\u7a7f\u5168\u8ab2\u7684\u4e09\u53e5\u8a71<\/h2>\n<div class=\"takeaways\">\n<h2>\ud83d\udc8e \u9019\u9580\u8ab2\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e09\u500b\u7d50\u8ad6<\/h2>\n<div class=\"takeaway-item\">\n <strong>1\ufe0f\u20e3 \u4f60\u8981\u7b97\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u81ea\u5df1\u90a3\u5f35\u8868\uff0c\u662f\u5c0d\u9762\u90a3\u5f35\u3002<\/strong><br \/>\n <span style=\"color:#d0d0d0\">Serena \u53cd\u624b\u8b8a\u5f37\uff0c\u5979\u53cd\u800c\u5c11\u5b88\u90a3\u4e00\u908a\u2014\u2014\u600e\u9ebc\u6df7\u662f\u5c0d\u9762\u7684\u5206\u6578\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u5831\u7a05\u4f8b\u5b50\u88e1\u7f70\u91d1\u52a0\u91cd\uff0c\u8001\u5be6\u7684\u4eba\u6c92\u8b8a\u591a\uff0c\u67e5\u5e33\u7684\u4eba\u8b8a\u61f6\u4e86\u3002<\/span>\n <\/div>\n<div class=\"takeaway-item\">\n <strong>2\ufe0f\u20e3 \u7559\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u597d\u3002<\/strong><br \/>\n <span style=\"color:#d0d0d0\">\u4e00\u7aa9\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u879e\u87fb\u6703\u88ab\u4e0d\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u5403\u6389\u3002\u9760\u5de6\u9760\u53f3\u90fd\u7a69\uff0c\u7a69\u4e86\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u6bd4\u8f03\u597d\u3002\u9023\u9396\u5e97\u8001\u95c6\u771f\u7684\u64cb\u4f4f\u4e86\u2014\u2014\u4f46\u90a3\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u4ed6\u9858\u610f\u5076\u723e\u771f\u7684\u62fc\u3002<\/span>\n <\/div>\n<div class=\"takeaway-item\">\n <strong>3\ufe0f\u20e3 \u96e3\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u773c\u524d\u5212\u7b97\u662f\u9577\u671f\u5212\u7b97\u3002<\/strong><br \/>\n <span style=\"color:#d0d0d0\">\u628a\u5225\u4eba\u6240\u6709\u7684\u53cd\u61c9\u90fd\u7b97\u9032\u53bb\uff0c\u628a\u5c0d\u65b9\u770b\u5f97\u5230\u4f60\u9019\u4ef6\u4e8b\u7b97\u9032\u53bb\uff0c\u628a\u4e00\u4ee3\u4e00\u4ee3\u63db\u4eba\u9019\u4ef6\u4e8b\u4e5f\u7b97\u9032\u53bb\u2014\u2014\u9019\u624d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u96e3\u3002\u4f46\u597d\u6d88\u606f\u662f\uff1a\u6703\u7b97\u4e86\u505c\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u4e0d\u6703\u7b97\u7684\u879e\u87fb\u4e5f\u505c\u5f97\u51fa\u4f86\u3002<\/span>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"final\">\n \ud83c\udfaf <strong>\u90198\u5802\u8ab2\u8aaa\u7684\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff1a<\/strong><br \/>\n <span style=\"font-size:1rem; color:#d0d0d0\"><br \/>\n \u5c0d\u65b9\u6703\u731c\u4f60\u7684\u6642\u5019 \u2192 \u4e0d\u80fd\u88ab\u8b80\u51fa\u4f86 \u2192 \u6df7\u5408\u7b56\u7565<br \/>\n \u4e00\u4ee3\u4e00\u4ee3\u63db\u4eba\u7684\u6642\u5019 \u2192 \u7559\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u662f\u5916\u4eba\u4f54\u4e0d\u5230\u4fbf\u5b9c\u7684\u505a\u6cd5 \u2192 \u6f14\u5316\u7a69\u5b9a<br \/>\n \u5c0d\u65b9\u770b\u5f97\u5230\u4f60\u7684\u6642\u5019 \u2192 \u6bcf\u4e00\u6b65\u8981\u8d70\u5230\u90a3\u4e00\u523b\u5c0d\u4f60\u9084\u5212\u7b97 \u2192 \u9006\u5411\u6b78\u7d0d<\/p>\n<p> \u4e0b\u4e00\u96c6\u8981\u554f\u7684\u662f\uff1a\u7576\u4f60\u6839\u672c\u770b\u4e0d\u5230\u5c0d\u65b9\u5fc3\u88e1\u90a3\u4ef6\u4e8b\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u4f60\u9084\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u7b97\uff1f<br \/>\n <\/span>\n<\/div>\n<footer>\n<p>\ud83d\udcfa Yale Open Course ECON159\uff5c\u6388\u8ab2\uff1aBen Polak\uff5c\u8f49\u9304\uff1aAI Notebook\uff08Jim\uff09\uff5c\u6574\u7406\uff1aHermes Agent<\/p>\n<p>\ud83c\udfae \u8cfd\u5c40\u7406\u8ad6\u7cfb\u5217\u7b46\u8a18\uff5c\u7b2c9-16\u8b1b<\/p>\n<\/footer>\n<p><\/body><br \/>\n<\/html><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud83c\udfae \u8cfd\u5c40\u7406\u8ad6\uff1a\u773c\u524d\u5212\u7b97\uff0c\u4e0d\u7b49\u65bc\u9577\u671f\u5212\u7b97 | Yale ECON159 \u7b46\u8a18 \ud83c\udfae \u8cfd\u5c40\u7406\u8ad6\u5b8c\u6574\u653b\u7565 \ud83d\udcfa Yale \u516c\u958b\u8ab2 ECON159\uff5c\u7b2c9-16\u8b1b\u7b46\u8a18 \u6388\u8ab2\u8001\u5e2b\uff1aBen Polak \uff5c \u8f49\u9304\uff1aAI Notebook\uff5cJim \ud83e\udd14 \u6838\u5fc3\u554f\u984c\uff1a\u4f60\u60f3\u597d\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u7b49\u5225\u4eba\u53cd\u61c9\u904e\u4f86\u4e4b\u5f8c\u9084\u5212\u7b97\u55ce\uff1f \ud83d\udca1 \u7b54\u6848\uff1a\u96e3\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u773c\u524d\u5212\u7b97\u662f\u9577\u671f\u5212\u7b97\u3002\u9577\u671f\u5c31\u662f\u628a\u5225\u4eba\u6240\u6709\u7684\u53cd\u61c9\u90fd\u7b97\u9032\u53bb\u3002 \u26a0\ufe0f \u90198\u5802\u8ab2\u7d66\u4e86\u4e09\u500b\u65b9\u5411\u3001\u4e09\u7a2e\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u4f46\u8aaa\u7684\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff01 \ud83e\udde9 \u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff1a\u4f60\u88ab\u5c0d\u624b\u731c\u5230\u7684\u6642\u5019\u2014\u2014\u6df7\u5408\u7b56\u7565 Mixed Strategy 1 \u6df7\u5408\u7b56\u7565 Mixed Strategy \ud83d\udccc \u6838\u5fc3\u554f\u984c\uff1aVenus \u6253\u7db2\u7403\uff0c\u6253\u5de6\u908a\u6216\u53f3\u908a\uff1f\u6253\u56fa\u5b9a\u4e00\u908a\u7b49\u65bc\u9001\u5206\u3002 \ud83d\udd11 \u600e\u9ebc\u505a\uff1a\u4e0d\u8981\u56fa\u5b9a\uff0c\u7528\u4e00\u500b\u96a8\u6a5f\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6df7\u8457\u6253\uff08\u8b6c\u5982 6:4\uff09\uff0c\u8b93 Serena \u6c92\u8fa6\u6cd5\u63d0\u524d\u7ad9\u597d\u3002 \u26a1 \u4eba\u5f88\u4e0d\u6703\u771f\u7684\u4e82\u6578\u2014\u2014\u5927\u8166\u6703\u5077\u5077\u898f\u5f8b\u5316\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8981\u7528\u786c\u5e63\u3001\u7d19\u689d\u4f86\u5e6b\u5fd9\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002 \ud83c\udfc0 \u5be6\u4f8b\uff1a\u4e8c\u6230\u82f1\u570b\u6307\u63ee\u5b98\u6bcf\u5929\u7528\u731c\u786c\u5e63\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4fdd\u8b77\u54ea\u652f\u8eca\u968a\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u300c\u81ea\u5df1\u60f3\u7684\u9760\u4e0d\u4f4f\u300d\u3002 \ud83c\udfc3 \u5be6\u4f8b\uff1a\u76dc\u58d8\u7684\u8dd1\u8005\u6709\u6642\u8dd1\u6709\u6642\u4e0d\u8dd1\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u6559\u7df4\u6559\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u4ed6\u672c\u4f86\u5c31\u5728\u6df7\u3002 2 \u6df7\u5408\u7b56\u7565\u95dc\u9375\u6027\u8cea Equalized Payoff Property \ud83d\udccc \u8acb\u5148\u8a18\u4f4f\u9019\u53e5\u8a71\uff1a \ud83c\udfaf \u6df7\u5728\u88e1\u9762\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u7a2e\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u5206\u6578\u4e00\u5b9a\u4e00\u6a23\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e0d\u7136\u65e9\u5c31\u88ab\u8e22\u51fa\u53bb\u4e86\u3002 \ud83d\udd0d [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-363","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-biz-management-"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/363","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=363"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/363\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":364,"href":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/363\/revisions\/364"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=363"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=363"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=363"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}