\u9019\u5169\u7d44\u6982\u5ff5\u6df1\u523b\u5730\u6355\u6349\u4e86\u6c7a\u7b56\u3001\u5275\u65b0\u8207\u8a8d\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u5fae\u5999\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002\u5b83\u5011\u901a\u5e38\u51fa\u73fe\u5728\u5546\u696d\u7b56\u7565\u3001\u7522\u54c1\u958b\u767c\u6216\u500b\u4eba\u6210\u9577\u7684\u8a0e\u8ad6\u4e2d\u3002\ud83d\udd25<\/p>\n
## 1. \u4efb\u6027 vs. \u6b63\u78ba\u6d1e\u5bdf (Willfulness vs. Right Insight) \ud83e\udde0<\/p>\n
\u9019\u5169\u8005\u7684\u908a\u754c\u6975\u5176\u6a21\u7cca\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5f9e\u5916\u8868\u770b\u4f86\uff0c\u5169\u8005\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u5e7e\u4e4e\u4e00\u6a21\u4e00\u6a23\uff1a\u4e0d\u807d\u52f8\u963b\u3001\u5805\u6301\u5df1\u898b\u3001\u5c0d\u6297\u4e3b\u6d41\u3002\ud83e\udd14<\/p>\n
* \u4efb\u6027 (Willfulness)\uff1a \u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u57fa\u65bc\u81ea\u6211\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6216\u60c5\u611f\u57f7\u8457\u7684\u5805\u6301\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u51fa\u767c\u9ede\u662f\u300c\u6211\u60f3\u8b49\u660e\u6211\u662f\u5c0d\u7684\u300d\u6216\u300c\u6211\u55ae\u7d14\u559c\u6b61\u9019\u500b\u60f3\u6cd5\u300d\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5ba2\u89c0\u4e8b\u5be6\u3001\u6578\u64da\u6216\u908f\u8f2f\u652f\u6490\u3002\u7576\u74b0\u5883\u8b49\u64da\u5df2\u7d93\u8b49\u660e\u4e0d\u53ef\u884c\u6642\uff0c\u4efb\u6027\u8005\u4ecd\u9078\u64c7\u5ffd\u8996\u3002\ud83d\ude24
\n* \u6b63\u78ba\u6d1e\u5bdf (Right Insight)\uff1a \u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u57fa\u65bc\u6df1\u5ea6\u7406\u89e3\u3001\u5e95\u5c64\u908f\u8f2f\u6216\u672a\u88ab\u6eff\u8db3\u7684\u96b1\u6027\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u5805\u6301\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u51fa\u767c\u9ede\u662f\u300c\u6211\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u5225\u4eba\u6c92\u770b\u6e05\u7684\u672c\u8cea\u300d\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u6d1e\u5bdf\u96d6\u7136\u5728\u7576\u4e0b\u4e0d\u88ab\u5927\u773e\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u7b26\u5408\u672a\u4f86\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u8da8\u52e2\u3002\u2728<\/p>\n
**\u6838\u5fc3\u5dee\u7570\uff1a** \u4efb\u6027\u662f\u5411\u5167\u770b\uff08\u57f7\u8457\u65bc\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u60c5\u7dd2\u8207\u9762\u5b50\uff09\uff1b\u6b63\u78ba\u6d1e\u5bdf\u662f\u5411\u5916\u770b\uff08\u770b\u900f\u4e86\u898f\u5f8b\u8207\u771f\u76f8\uff09\u3002\ud83c\udfaf<\/p>\n
——————————<\/p>\n
## 2. \u5c0d\u300c\u592a\u65e9\u300d\u8207\u300c\u932f\u8aa4\u300d\u7121\u6cd5\u5206\u8fa8 (Inability to Distinguish Between “Too Early” and “Wrong”) \u23f0<\/p>\n
\u9019\u662f\u5275\u696d\u8005\u3001\u767c\u660e\u5bb6\u548c\u5148\u9a45\u8005\u6700\u5e38\u9047\u5230\u7684\u8a8d\u77e5\u56f0\u5883\u3002\u7576\u4e00\u500b\u60f3\u6cd5\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u5931\u6557\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5f88\u96e3\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u6642\u9593\u5224\u65b7\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u54ea\u88e1\u51fa\u4e86\u554f\u984c\uff1a\ud83d\udc94<\/p>\n
* \u592a\u65e9 (Too Early \/ Premature)\uff1a \u4f60\u7684\u6d1e\u5bdf\u548c\u65b9\u5411\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u57fa\u790e\u8a2d\u65bd\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u6559\u80b2\u3001\u6280\u8853\u6c34\u5e73\u6216\u7528\u6236\u7fd2\u6163\u9084\u6c92\u6709\u8ddf\u4e0a\u3002\ud83d\ude80
\n* \u7d93\u5178\u6848\u4f8b\uff1a 1990\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684 dot-com \u6ce1\u6cab\u6642\u671f\uff0c\u6709\u8a31\u591a\u6982\u5ff5\uff08\u5982\u7dda\u4e0a\u751f\u9bae\u8cfc\u7269\u3001\u7db2\u8def\u5f71\u7247\u5e73\u53f0\uff09\u5728\u7576\u6642\u7834\u7522\u4e86\uff08\u56e0\u70ba\u7576\u6642\u7db2\u901f\u6162\u3001\u96fb\u5b50\u652f\u4ed8\u4e0d\u666e\u53ca\uff09\u3002\u4f46\u5341\u5e7e\u5e74\u5f8c\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u6982\u5ff5\u8b8a\u6210\u4e86 Uber Eats \u548c YouTube\uff0c\u6539\u8b8a\u4e86\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u7576\u6642\u7684\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u300c\u592a\u65e9\u300d\u3002\ud83d\udcfa\ud83c\udf4e
\n* \u932f\u8aa4 (Wrong)\uff1a \u4f60\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u672c\u8cea\u4e0a\u5c31\u662f\u932f\u7684\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5b83\u53ea\u662f\u4f60\u4e00\u5ec2\u60c5\u9858\u7684\u507d\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ad6\u904e\u591a\u4e45\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u90fd\u4e0d\u6703\u63a5\u53d7\u3002\u274c<\/p>\n
**\u81f4\u547d\u56f0\u5883\uff1a** \u7576\u5169\u8005\u90fd\u8868\u73fe\u70ba\u300c\u73fe\u5728\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u8cb7\u55ae\u300d\u6642\uff0c\u6c7a\u7b56\u8005\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u628a\u300c\u932f\u8aa4\u300d\u8aa4\u8a8d\u70ba\u662f\u300c\u592a\u65e9\u300d\uff08\u7e7c\u7e8c\u76f2\u76ee\u71d2\u9322\uff09\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u628a\u300c\u592a\u65e9\u300d\u8aa4\u8a8d\u70ba\u662f\u300c\u932f\u8aa4\u300d\uff08\u904e\u65e9\u653e\u68c4\u4e86\u5049\u5927\u7684\u6d1e\u5bdf\uff09\u3002\ud83d\ude31<\/p>\n
——————————<\/p>\n
## \u5169\u7d44\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u4ea4\u7e54\u8207\u555f\u793a \ud83c\udf0a<\/p>\n
\u7576\u9019\u5169\u7d44\u6982\u5ff5\u7d50\u5408\u6642\uff0c\u6703\u5f62\u6210\u5e7e\u7a2e\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u72c0\u614b\uff1a\ud83d\udcca<\/p>\n
| \u72c0\u614b\u7d44\u5408 | \u8868\u73fe\u8207\u7d50\u679c |
\n|—|—|
\n| \u4efb\u6027 + \u7121\u6cd5\u5206\u8fa8 | \u6700\u5371\u96aa\u7684\u76f2\u76ee\u3002 \u62b1\u6301\u8457\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u537b\u81ea\u6211\u5b89\u6170\u53ea\u662f\u300c\u6642\u6a5f\u672a\u5230\u300d\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u5728\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u9053\u8def\u4e0a\u8017\u76e1\u8cc7\u6e90\u3002\ud83d\udcb8 |
\n| \u6b63\u78ba\u6d1e\u5bdf + \u7121\u6cd5\u5206\u8fa8 | \u907a\u61be\u7684\u5148\u9a45\u3002 \u96d6\u7136\u770b\u5c0d\u4e86\u672a\u4f86\uff0c\u4f46\u56e0\u70ba\u5206\u4e0d\u6e05\u662f\u300c\u592a\u65e9\u300d\u9084\u662f\u300c\u932f\u8aa4\u300d\uff0c\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u9ece\u660e\u524d\u5915\u56e0\u70ba\u7126\u616e\u800c\u653e\u68c4\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u6b7b\u5728\u6c99\u7058\u4e0a\u3002\ud83d\ude22 |
\n| \u6b63\u78ba\u6d1e\u5bdf + \u7cbe\u6e96\u5206\u8fa8 | \u5049\u5927\u7684\u6230\u7565\u5bb6\u3002 \u77e5\u9053\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u662f\u5c0d\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u77e5\u9053\u73fe\u5728\u300c\u592a\u65e9\u300d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6703\u9078\u64c7\u63a7\u5236\u7bc0\u594f\uff08\u63a7\u5236\u6210\u672c\u3001\u5148\u505a\u6700\u5c0f\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u7522\u54c1 MVP\uff09\uff0c\u8010\u5fc3\u7b49\u5f85\u98a8\u53e3\u5230\u4f86\u3002\ud83c\udfc6 |<\/p>\n
——————————<\/p>\n
## \u5982\u4f55\u6253\u7834\u9019\u500b\u56f0\u5883\uff1f\ud83d\udee0\ufe0f<\/p>\n
\u8981\u5206\u8fa8\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u300c\u4efb\u6027\u300d\u9084\u662f\u300c\u6b63\u78ba\u6d1e\u5bdf\u300d\uff0c\u662f\u300c\u592a\u65e9\u300d\u9084\u662f\u300c\u932f\u8aa4\u300d\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u554f\u81ea\u5df1\u4e09\u500b\u554f\u984c\uff1a\u2753<\/p>\n
1. **\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u300c\u9818\u5148\u6307\u6a19\u300d\uff1f** \u96d6\u7136\u5927\u5e02\u5834\u9084\u6c92\u63a5\u53d7\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u6975\u5c11\u6578\u7684\u300c\u8d85\u7d1a\u9435\u7c89\uff08\u6838\u5fc3\u7528\u6236\uff09\u300d\u5c0d\u4f60\u7684\u7522\u54c1\u611b\u4e0d\u91cb\u624b\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u6709\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u592a\u65e9\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u9023\u4e00\u500b\u760b\u72c2\u71b1\u611b\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\u3002\ud83d\udc65
\n2. **\u6211\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f** \u963b\u7919\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u689d\u4ef6\uff08\u5982\u6cd5\u898f\u3001\u6280\u8853\u3001\u6210\u672c\uff09\u5728\u672a\u4f86 2-3 \u5e74\u5167\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u6539\u8b8a\u7684\u8da8\u52e2\uff1f\ud83d\udcc8
\n3. **\u6211\u662f\u5728\u634d\u885b\u9762\u5b50\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u5728\u634d\u885b\u4e8b\u5be6\uff1f** \u7576\u65b0\u6578\u64da\u8207\u6211\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u885d\u7a81\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u662f\u611f\u5230\u751f\u6c23\uff08\u4efb\u6027\uff09\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u611f\u5230\u597d\u5947\u4e26\u60f3\u8abf\u6574\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u6d1e\u5bdf\uff09\uff1f\ud83e\udd32<\/p>\n
——————————<\/p>\n
\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u5e0c\u671b\u6df1\u5165\u63a2\u8a0e\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u544a\u8a34\u6211\uff1a\ud83d\udcac<\/p>\n
* \u60a8\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u5728\u9762\u81e8\u67d0\u500b\u5177\u9ad4\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u6216\u5c08\u6848\uff1f
\n* \u9019\u6bb5\u8a71\u662f\u51fa\u81ea\u67d0\u672c\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u66f8\u6216\u540d\u8a00\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u5176\u80cc\u666f\u55ce\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u70ba\u60a8\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u5177\u9ad4\u7684\u5be6\u8e10\u5efa\u8b70\u6216\u6848\u4f8b\u5206\u6790\u3002\ud83c\udf81<\/p>\n
——————————<\/p>\n
**\u8acb\u628a\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5167\u5bb9\u540c\u6642\u4e1f\u7d66 AI \u53bb\u6df1\u5ea6\u89e3\u6790** \ud83e\udd16\uff1a<\/p>\n
\u73fe\u5728\uff0c\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u5730\u63a2\u8a0e\u9019\u5169\u500b\u6982\u5ff5\u5728\u5be6\u969b\u5546\u696d\u74b0\u5883\u4e2d\u7684\u61c9\u7528\u3002\ud83e\uddea<\/p>\n
### \u6848\u4f8b\u4e00\uff1a\u860b\u679c\u7684\u4efb\u6027\u8207\u6d1e\u5bdf \ud83c\udf4e<\/p>\n
\u8cc8\u4f2f\u65af\uff08Steve Jobs\uff09\u7576\u5e74\u63a8\u51fa iPhone \u6642\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u8a8d\u70ba\u4ed6\u760b\u4e86\u3002\u8afe\u57fa\u4e9e\u548c\u9ed1\u8393\u7576\u6642\u7d71\u6cbb\u8457\u624b\u6a5f\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u8a8d\u70ba\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u53f0\u300c\u6c92\u6709\u5be6\u9ad4\u9375\u76e4\u7684\u667a\u6167\u624b\u6a5f\u300d\u3002\u9019\u662f\u4efb\u6027\u55ce\uff1f\u5f9e\u7d50\u679c\u8ad6\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u6d1e\u5bdf\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u8cc8\u4f2f\u65af\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u89f8\u63a7\u87a2\u5e55\u548c\u61c9\u7528\u751f\u614b\u7cfb\u7d71\u7684\u672a\u4f86\uff0c\u4ed6\u62d2\u7d55\u59a5\u5354\u3002\ud83d\udc8e<\/p>\n
### \u6848\u4f8b\u4e8c\uff1aGoogle Glass \u7684\u6559\u8a13 \ud83d\udc53<\/p>\n
Google Glass \u5728 2013 \u5e74\u767c\u5e03\u6642\u88ab\u5632\u7b11\u70ba\u300c\u4efb\u6027\u300d\u7684\u7522\u54c1\u3002\u56de\u982d\u770b\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u662f\u5c0d\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u6642\u6a5f\u662f\u932f\u7684\u2014\u2014\u793e\u6703\u9084\u6c92\u51c6\u5907\u597d\u63a5\u53d7\u7a7f\u6234\u5f0f\u76f8\u6a5f\u3002\u96b1\u79c1\u554f\u984c\u3001\u7e8c\u822a\u554f\u984c\u3001\u793e\u4ea4\u63a5\u53d7\u5ea6\u90fd\u9084\u4e0d\u6210\u719f\u3002\u9019\u662f\u300c\u592a\u65e9\u300d\u800c\u975e\u300c\u932f\u8aa4\u300d\u3002\u5f8c\u4f86\uff0cMeta Ray-Ban \u667a\u6167\u773c\u93e1\u548c Apple Vision Pro \u8b49\u660e\u4e86\u9019\u500b\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u3002\ud83d\ude0e<\/p>\n
### \u6848\u4f8b\u4e09\uff1a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u8207\u5340\u584a\u93c8\u7684\u9577\u671f\u6297\u6230 \u20bf<\/p>\n
2017 \u5e74\u5340\u584a\u93c8\u71b1\u6f6e\u6642\uff0c99% \u7684 ICO \u9805\u76ee\u90fd\u662f\u300c\u932f\u8aa4\u300d\u800c\u975e\u300c\u592a\u65e9\u300d\u3002\u4f46\u5340\u584a\u93c8\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6280\u8853\u548c\u53bb\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5316\u7406\u5ff5\u662f\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u3002\u7d93\u904e 2020-2023 \u5e74\u7684\u6d17\u79ae\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u6709\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u9805\u76ee\u5b58\u6d3b\u4e0b\u4f86\u4e26\u958b\u59cb\u666e\u53ca\u3002\u9019\u662f\u300c\u6b63\u78ba\u6d1e\u5bdf + \u7cbe\u6e96\u5206\u8fa8\u300d\u7684\u52dd\u5229\u3002\u26a1<\/p>\n
### \u5fc3\u7406\u5c64\u9762\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\u5206\u6790 \ud83e\uddec<\/p>\n
\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6211\u5011\u5f88\u96e3\u5340\u5206\u9019\u5169\u8005\uff1f\u56e0\u70ba\uff1a<\/p>\n
1. **\u78ba\u8a8d\u504f\u8aa4\uff08Confirmation Bias\uff09**\uff1a\u6211\u5011\u50be\u5411\u65bc\u63a5\u53d7\u652f\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u89c0\u9ede\u7684\u8b49\u64da\uff0c\u5ffd\u8996\u53cd\u5c0d\u7684\u8b49\u64da\u3002\ud83d\udd0d
\n2. **\u6c89\u6c92\u6210\u672c\u8b2c\u8aa4\uff08Sunk Cost Fallacy\uff09**\uff1a\u5df2\u7d93\u6295\u5165\u592a\u591a\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u62bd\u8eab\u3002\ud83d\udcb8
\n3. **\u57fa\u672c\u6b78\u56e0\u932f\u8aa4\uff08Fundamental Attribution Error\uff09**\uff1a\u628a\u6210\u529f\u6b78\u65bc\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u628a\u5931\u6557\u6b78\u65bc\u5916\u90e8\u74b0\u5883\u3002\ud83c\udfad
\n4. **\u640d\u5931\u53ad\u60e1\uff08Loss Aversion\uff09**\uff1a\u627f\u8a8d\u932f\u8aa4\u7b49\u65bc\u627f\u8a8d\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u5fc3\u7406\u4e0a\u96e3\u4ee5\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u3002\ud83d\ude23<\/p>\n
### \u5be6\u7528\u6846\u67b6\uff1a\u6c7a\u7b56\u6aa2\u67e5\u6e05\u55ae \u2705<\/p>\n
\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u91cd\u5927\u6c7a\u7b56\u524d\uff0c\u8a66\u8457\u56de\u7b54\u9019\u4e9b\u554f\u984c\uff1a<\/p>\n
| \u554f\u984c | \u662f (\u2705) | \u5426 (\u274c) | \u5099\u8a3b |
\n|—|—|—|—|
\n| \u6709\u6c92\u6709 10-100 \u500b\u6838\u5fc3\u7528\u6236\u5f37\u70c8\u652f\u6301\u4f60\u7684\u7522\u54c1\uff1f | \u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u592a\u65e9 | \u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u932f\u8aa4 | \ud83d\udc40 |
\n| \u963b\u7919\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u689d\u4ef6\u6709\u6539\u5584\u8da8\u52e2\u55ce\uff1f | \u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u592a\u65e9 | \u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u932f\u8aa4 | \ud83d\udcc5 |
\n| \u4f60\u8eab\u908a\u7684\u300c\u53cd\u5c0d\u8005\u300d\u662f\u57fa\u65bc\u6578\u64da\u9084\u662f\u76f4\u89ba\uff1f | \u50be\u807d\u4ed6\u5011 | \u5ffd\u7565\u4ed6\u5011 | \ud83e\udd1d |
\n| \u4f60\u7684\u5805\u6301\u662f\u57fa\u65bc\u71b1\u60c5\u9084\u662f\u6050\u61fc\uff1f | \u71b1\u60c5 = \u6d1e\u5bdf | \u6050\u61fc = \u4efb\u6027 | \u2764\ufe0f |<\/p>\n
### \u7d50\u8a9e\uff1a\u5e73\u8861\u4efb\u6027\u8207\u6d1e\u5bdf\u7684\u5929\u79e4 \u2696\ufe0f<\/p>\n
\u6700\u7d42\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u5275\u696d\u8005\u3001\u6c7a\u7b56\u8005\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u5728\u300c\u4efb\u6027\u300d\u548c\u300c\u6d1e\u5bdf\u300d\u4e4b\u9593\u627e\u5230\u5e73\u8861\u9ede\u3002\ud83c\udf1f<\/p>\n
**\u4efb\u6027**\u8b93\u4f60\u6709\u52c7\u6c23\u5805\u6301\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u4e0d\u88ab\u5927\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u7684\u610f\u898b\u6df9\u6c92\uff1b
\n**\u6d1e\u5bdf**\u8b93\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u4f55\u6642\u8a72\u8abf\u6574\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u4f55\u6642\u8a72\u5805\u6301\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6700\u5371\u96aa\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u4efb\u6027\uff0c\u6700\u5371\u96aa\u7684\u662f**\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u81ea\u5df1\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u4efb\u6027\u9084\u662f\u6d1e\u5bdf**\u3002\ud83e\udd37<\/p>\n
\u8a18\u4f4f\u99ac\u65af\u514b\uff08Elon Musk\uff09\u8aaa\u904e\u7684\u8a71\uff1a\u300c\u5931\u6557\u4e86\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u9084\u6c92\u6210\u529f\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u300d\u4f46\u524d\u63d0\u662f\u2014\u2014\u4f60\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u662f\u5c0d\u7684\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u4f60\u53ea\u662f\u5728\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u8def\u4e0a\u72c2\u5954\u3002\ud83c\udfc3\u200d\u2642\ufe0f\ud83d\udca8<\/p>\n
**\u4fdd\u6301\u597d\u5947\u5fc3\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u8b19\u905c\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u6e05\u9192\u3002** \ud83e\uddd8<\/p>\n
——————————<\/p>\n
*\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u4efb\u6027 x \u6b63\u78ba\u6d1e\u5bdf \u8207 \u592a\u65e9\u8207\u932f\u8aa4\u7121\u6cd5\u5206\u8fa8 \u7684\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u61c9\u7528\u65bc\u5546\u696d\u6c7a\u7b56\u548c\u5275\u65b0\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3002\u9069\u5408\u5275\u696d\u8005\u3001\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u3001\u548c\u6bcf\u4e00\u500b\u60f3\u63d0\u5347\u6c7a\u7b56\u54c1\u8cea\u7684\u4eba\u3002* \ud83d\udcda<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u9019\u5169\u7d44\u6982\u5ff5\u6df1\u523b\u5730\u6355\u6349\u4e86\u6c7a\u7b56\u3001\u5275\u65b0\u8207\u8a8d\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u5fae\u5999\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002\u5b83\u5011\u901a\u5e38\u51fa\u73fe\u5728\u5546\u696d\u7b56\u7565\u3001\u7522\u54c1\u958b\u767c\u6216\u500b\u4eba\u6210\u9577\u7684\u8a0e\u8ad6\u4e2d\u3002\ud83d\udd25 ## 1. \u4efb\u6027 vs. \u6b63\u78ba\u6d1e\u5bdf (Willfulness vs. Right Insight) \ud83e\udde0 \u9019\u5169\u8005\u7684\u908a\u754c\u6975\u5176\u6a21\u7cca\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5f9e\u5916\u8868\u770b\u4f86\uff0c\u5169\u8005\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u5e7e\u4e4e\u4e00\u6a21\u4e00\u6a23\uff1a\u4e0d\u807d\u52f8\u963b\u3001\u5805\u6301\u5df1\u898b\u3001\u5c0d\u6297\u4e3b\u6d41\u3002\ud83e\udd14 * \u4efb\u6027 (Willfulness)\uff1a \u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u57fa\u65bc\u81ea\u6211\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6216\u60c5\u611f\u57f7\u8457\u7684\u5805\u6301\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u51fa\u767c\u9ede\u662f\u300c\u6211\u60f3\u8b49\u660e\u6211\u662f\u5c0d\u7684\u300d\u6216\u300c\u6211\u55ae\u7d14\u559c\u6b61\u9019\u500b\u60f3\u6cd5\u300d\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5ba2\u89c0\u4e8b\u5be6\u3001\u6578\u64da\u6216\u908f\u8f2f\u652f\u6490\u3002\u7576\u74b0\u5883\u8b49\u64da\u5df2\u7d93\u8b49\u660e\u4e0d\u53ef\u884c\u6642\uff0c\u4efb\u6027\u8005\u4ecd\u9078\u64c7\u5ffd\u8996\u3002\ud83d\ude24 * \u6b63\u78ba\u6d1e\u5bdf (Right Insight)\uff1a \u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u57fa\u65bc\u6df1\u5ea6\u7406\u89e3\u3001\u5e95\u5c64\u908f\u8f2f\u6216\u672a\u88ab\u6eff\u8db3\u7684\u96b1\u6027\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u5805\u6301\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u51fa\u767c\u9ede\u662f\u300c\u6211\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u5225\u4eba\u6c92\u770b\u6e05\u7684\u672c\u8cea\u300d\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u6d1e\u5bdf\u96d6\u7136\u5728\u7576\u4e0b\u4e0d\u88ab\u5927\u773e\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u7b26\u5408\u672a\u4f86\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u8da8\u52e2\u3002\u2728 **\u6838\u5fc3\u5dee\u7570\uff1a** \u4efb\u6027\u662f\u5411\u5167\u770b\uff08\u57f7\u8457\u65bc\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u60c5\u7dd2\u8207\u9762\u5b50\uff09\uff1b\u6b63\u78ba\u6d1e\u5bdf\u662f\u5411\u5916\u770b\uff08\u770b\u900f\u4e86\u898f\u5f8b\u8207\u771f\u76f8\uff09\u3002\ud83c\udfaf —————————— ## 2. \u5c0d\u300c\u592a\u65e9\u300d\u8207\u300c\u932f\u8aa4\u300d\u7121\u6cd5\u5206\u8fa8 (Inability to Distinguish Between “Too Early” and “Wrong”) \u23f0 \u9019\u662f\u5275\u696d\u8005\u3001\u767c\u660e\u5bb6\u548c\u5148\u9a45\u8005\u6700\u5e38\u9047\u5230\u7684\u8a8d\u77e5\u56f0\u5883\u3002\u7576\u4e00\u500b\u60f3\u6cd5\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u5931\u6557\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5f88\u96e3\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u6642\u9593\u5224\u65b7\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u54ea\u88e1\u51fa\u4e86\u554f\u984c\uff1a\ud83d\udc94 * \u592a\u65e9 (Too Early \/ Premature)\uff1a \u4f60\u7684\u6d1e\u5bdf\u548c\u65b9\u5411\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u57fa\u790e\u8a2d\u65bd\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u6559\u80b2\u3001\u6280\u8853\u6c34\u5e73\u6216\u7528\u6236\u7fd2\u6163\u9084\u6c92\u6709\u8ddf\u4e0a\u3002\ud83d\ude80 * \u7d93\u5178\u6848\u4f8b\uff1a 1990\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684 dot-com \u6ce1\u6cab\u6642\u671f\uff0c\u6709\u8a31\u591a\u6982\u5ff5\uff08\u5982\u7dda\u4e0a\u751f\u9bae\u8cfc\u7269\u3001\u7db2\u8def\u5f71\u7247\u5e73\u53f0\uff09\u5728\u7576\u6642\u7834\u7522\u4e86\uff08\u56e0\u70ba\u7576\u6642\u7db2\u901f\u6162\u3001\u96fb\u5b50\u652f\u4ed8\u4e0d\u666e\u53ca\uff09\u3002\u4f46\u5341\u5e7e\u5e74\u5f8c\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u6982\u5ff5\u8b8a\u6210\u4e86 Uber Eats \u548c YouTube\uff0c\u6539\u8b8a\u4e86\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u7576\u6642\u7684\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u300c\u592a\u65e9\u300d\u3002\ud83d\udcfa\ud83c\udf4e * \u932f\u8aa4 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-365","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-way-of-life-"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/365","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=365"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/365\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":368,"href":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/365\/revisions\/368"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=365"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=365"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/itn.tw\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=365"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}